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GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc. (PEW)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Revenue grew 10% year over year to $22.3M, modestly beating S&P Global consensus of ~$22.0M by ~$0.3M (+1.2%); firearms volume rose 16% and the company outperformed industry adjusted NICS (-5.3% YoY) . Revenue Consensus Mean for Q3 2025: $22.0M*.
  • GAAP profitability disappointed: operating loss was $4.2M and GAAP EPS was $(0.12) vs $0.06 in Q3’24, driven by $3.2M stock-based comp and non-recurring public-listing/legal costs; Adjusted EBITDA was a $(0.35)M loss .
  • Gross margin expanded 200 bps YoY to 11% and improved ~70 bps sequentially versus Q2 per management (benefits from strategic purchasing and mix); CFO expects slight sequential gross margin improvement in Q4 .
  • Liquidity and capital return remain strong: $109.5M cash, no debt, and $8.9M of buybacks completed with $11.1M remaining under the $20M authorization; dual listing on NYSE Texas completed .
  • Initial Q4 color: mid- to high-single-digit YoY revenue growth and continued margin progress; near-term stock reaction likely hinges on estimate resets for EPS (large GAAP miss), confirmation of holiday demand, and buyback pace . Primary EPS Consensus Mean for Q3 2025: $0.01* vs actual $(0.12) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Share gains and growth vs industry: Net revenue +10% YoY to $22.3M while adjusted NICS fell ~5.3% YoY; firearms sales +12% to $18.1M on 16% volume growth .
  • Margin expansion: Gross margin reached 11% (+200 bps YoY) with ~70 bps sequential improvement on better purchasing and vendor relationships; CFO expects slight sequential improvement into Q4 .
  • Customer engagement and loyalty metrics: Repeat sales +8.1% YoY; repeat rate improved 47 bps to 55%; AOV +7.7%; LTVs up across cohorts (new customer LTV $551, existing $1,813, overall $855) .
  • Management conviction and capital allocation: $8.9M repurchased in Q3 with $11.1M remaining on the $20M program; cash $109.5M and no debt provide flexibility .
  • CEO tone: “We delivered another exceptional quarter… strong third quarter revenue of $22.3 million, up 10% year over year… adjusted FBI NICS data declined approximately 5.3%” .

What Went Wrong

  • Profitability reset: Operating income swung from +$0.5M (Q3’24) to $(4.2)M (Q3’25) driven by $3.2M stock-based comp and public-company/legal expenses; GAAP net loss $(3.3)M; Adjusted EBITDA $(0.35)M .
  • Non-firearm softness: Non-firearm revenue was $4.2M (+3% YoY), but Q3 commentary shows a 20% reduction in non-firearm volumes YoY (offset by +29% ASP) .
  • Controls maturity: Management disclosed material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting as of Q3 (personnel, segregation of duties), with remediation plans underway .
  • Limited Street coverage: Only one revenue and EPS estimate for near-term quarters, heightening estimate volatility and potential for outsized reactions to updates*.

Financial Results

Core P&L (YoY comparison)

MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025
Revenue ($M)$20.17 $22.27
Gross Margin (%)9.0% 11.0%
Operating Income ($M)$0.51 $(4.18)
Net Income ($M)$0.55 $(3.25)
Diluted EPS ($)$0.06 $(0.12)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$0.59 $(0.35)

Notes:

  • Sequential trend: management cited ~70 bps gross margin improvement vs Q2 .
  • Drivers of OpEx step-up: $3.2M stock-based comp and non-recurring listing/legal costs tied to the Business Combination .

Actual vs Consensus (Q3 2025)

MetricActualConsensusSurprise
Revenue ($M)$22.27 $22.0*+$0.27M / +1.2%
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$(0.12) $0.01*Miss by $0.13

Values marked with * are from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment/Category Revenue

Category ($M)Q3 2024Q3 2025
Firearm Sales$16.12 $18.08
Non-Firearm Sales$4.06 $4.19
Total$20.17 $22.27

Management color: Firearms +12% revenue on +16% unit growth; adjusted NICS down ~5.3% YoY .

KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q3 2025Commentary
Repeat Sales Growth YoY (%)—+8.1% Strengthening loyalty
Repeat Rate (%)~54.5%55.0% (+47 bps) Mix shift to loyal base
Average Order Value (YoY)—+7.7% Higher spend per order
LTV – New Customer ($)—$551 +8.4% YoY
LTV – Existing Customer ($)—$1,813 +5.7% YoY
LTV – Overall ($)—$855 +10.8% YoY
Mobile Sessions (YoY)—+13% Engagement up
Orders via Mobile (%)65%67% Channel share up
Revenue via Mobile (%)63%64% Monetization intact

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($M)Q3 2025$21–$23 preliminary (10/2) $22.3 reported In line; landed near midpoint
Revenue Growth (YoY)Q4 2025—Mid- to high-single-digit growth New directional guide
Gross MarginQ4 2025—Slight sequential improvement vs Q3 New directional guide
Operating ExpensesNear-term—Increasing with team/tech/public costs Higher near term to drive scale
Share RepurchasesThrough Aug ’26$20M authorization (8/4) $8.9M executed; $11.1M remaining Ongoing deployment

No explicit numeric guidance given for EPS, tax rate, or segment-level outlook.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Technology & AIN/A (limited prior public calls)AI-powered pricing, demand forecasting; mobile-first UX; personalization roadmap Increasing investment emphasis
Supply Chain & PurchasingN/AStrategic purchasing and expanded supplier relationships driving margin gains Positive margin driver
Macro/RegulatoryN/A2A advocacy; partnership with Second Amendment Foundation; industry adjusted NICS decline Supportive brand positioning; industry headwinds
Product/Category MixN/AFirearms strength; non-firearm volume lower YoY despite higher ASPs Mixed but firearms-led
Marketing & Customer AcquisitionN/ANew CMO; increased marketing into Q4; partnerships and content strategy Spend ramp to drive growth
Internal ControlsN/AMaterial weaknesses identified; remediation planned Risk requires monitoring

Management Commentary

  • CEO (prepared remarks): “We delivered strong third quarter revenue of $22.3 million, up 10% year over year… adjusted FBI NICS data declined approximately 5.3%, highlighting GrabAGun’s continued ability to capture market share” .
  • CFO: “Gross profit margin was 11%, a 200 basis point increase YoY and ~70 basis points from the second quarter… The difference [in operating results] is primarily due to $3.2 million stock-based compensation and other legal and accounting expenses tied to the business combination” .
  • Capital allocation: “We completed just under $8.9 million in share repurchases… with approximately $11.1 million remaining” .
  • Strategy: “We are advancing our technology stack… integrating smarter data, faster search, and personalized recommendations” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Marketing ramp into Q4: New CMO and partnerships/content are central; marketing spend to increase with expected decent ROAS during the seasonally strong quarter .
  • Gross margin drivers: Primarily strategic purchasing/buying at better prices; volume leverage helps; slight sequential improvement expected in Q4 .
  • G&A/OpEx normalization: Elevated near-term due to public company costs and rapid hiring; management expects scaling benefits over time as in-house capabilities replace outsourced services .
  • Growth vs industry: Emphasis on mobile engagement (67% of orders, 64% of revenue) and younger cohorts supporting outperformance .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025: Revenue beat consensus ($22.27M vs $22.0M*); GAAP EPS $(0.12) vs $0.01*—a significant miss driven by stock comp and transaction costs .
  • Forward (single-estimate coverage): Q4 2025 revenue est. ~$27.8M*; Primary EPS est. $0.02*; limited visibility with one estimate may produce volatility.

Estimates snapshot (S&P Global):

MetricQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
Revenue Consensus Mean ($M)22.0*27.8*25.2*22.5*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)0.01*0.02*0.00*0.00*
# of Revenue Estimates1*1*1*1*
# of EPS Estimates1*1*1*1*

Values marked with * are from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue momentum and share gains are real in a down industry tape (adj. NICS -5.3% YoY), aided by mobile-first engagement and better purchasing—constructive for top-line durability into holiday .
  • Near-term EPS is pressured by stock comp and public-company costs; watch for OpEx discipline and operating leverage inflection as hiring replaces outsourced services .
  • Gross margin trajectory is improving (YoY +200 bps; guided slight sequential uptick in Q4); holiday mix and procurement discipline are key near-term catalysts .
  • Strong balance sheet ($109.5M cash, no debt) and an active buyback ($8.9M done; $11.1M left) provide downside support and optionality for M&A and organic tech investments .
  • Watch non-firearm categories: unit softness persists despite higher ASPs; sustained firearms outperformance needs to carry overall growth .
  • Controls remediation is a necessary risk-reduction milestone post-listing; progress updates will matter for governance-focused investors .
  • With sparse coverage (one estimate), prints and intra-quarter updates may drive outsized stock moves; traders should anchor on revenue cadence, margin execution, and buyback pace*.

Appendix: Additional Context

  • Preliminary Q3 press release (10/2): revenue range $21–$23M; repurchases $8.8M; confirmed $11.2M remaining at that date .
  • Final Q3 press release (11/13) and 10-Q filed: revenue $22.3M; firearms $18.1M; gross margin 11%; Op loss $(4.2)M; net loss $(3.3)M; Adj. EBITDA $(0.35)M; cash $109.5M; no debt .
  • Subsequent event: Agreement to purchase $8.3M HQ/warehouse building (10/3) .
  • Repurchase authorization announcement (8/4): up to $20M over 12 months .
  • Dual listing on NYSE Texas while maintaining NYSE primary listing (10/21) .